🍒 Creating a flawless winning strategy in a Casino (BlackJack) using Data Science?

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To find success at the blackjack tables, there are a number of simple rules. You also need to know when you can split and the best strategy for each. This means that you put the dealer in the game and make a bet for them.


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Learn how to play blackjack, as well as the rules and strategies for winning at the card game.
It was originally known as 21.
The goal of the game is to beat the dealer's hand by scoring 21 or as close to 21 as you can get without going over.
If the dealer scores closest to 21, you lose.
Although blackjack was played even in early American gambling houses, it was never as popular a game as poker, so gaming houses had to spice it up a bit in order to give it a little more mass appeal.
Some gambling houses offered bigger payouts for blackjack hands, while others gave bonuses for certain card combinations�namely an ace of spades with a jack of clubs.
That's how 21 was renamed blackjack�from the combination of those two cards.
Let's Play When easy blackjack betting strategy request a hit in blackjack, you're asking the dealer to give you another card.
Blackjack is played with a standard 52-card deck and is a very simple game that requires a certain amount of skill based on a certain amount of luck.
The luck part has to do with the cards you are dealt and the skill has to do with learning some basic strategies�mainly knowing when to hit, stand, split or double-down.
The goal is not to beat the other players at the table�whether that's the casino table or the kitchen table�the goal is to beat the dealer's hand.
The dealer begins by shuffling the cards.
Some casinos play with up to as many as six decks, but at home one deck will do just fine.
The dealer will then deal the cards to each player and to him- or herself.
The dealer should be standing or sitting across from the other players and always starts the deal with the person on his or her left.
The hole card is the dealer's face-down card.
On the first deal, each player is dealt two cards, face-down.
The dealer deals him- or herself one card face-down the hole card and the other card face-up.
Each player is basically playing a separate game based on the cards he or she is dealt and in relation to what the player thinks the dealer has.
The dealer begins with the first player on his or her left.
That player looks at his or her cards and determines article source he or she can take another card without going over 21.
It's important to get a good look at the dealer's face-up card because that could determine what strategy you decide to use in playing your own hand.
If you don't want to play for money, play for chips or for chores around the house.
Technically, scoring 21 with more than two cards is easy blackjack betting strategy considered blackjack, but you can still win this way.
If you total 21 before the dealer or any other player, you win the pot.
When your cards are dealt, add them up and figure out whether you want to stand with what you have or take another card.
There are many strategies for standing or hitting, but basically, you https://artwinajans.com/blackjack/blackjack-revolution-cheats.html have to figure out your odds.
If your cards total nine, chances are pretty good that you'll be able to take another card without going over 21.
If your cards total 18, your chances of going over 21 are much greater, and you will likely want to stay.
Remember that you are not only trying to score as close to 21 as possible, but you are trying to beat the dealer�so you have to check out the dealer's cards, too.
The problem is, you can only see one of his or her cards at this time and you have to do some guessing to figure out if you can beat him or her.
Hitting and Standing When you have your cards, you have to decide whether to hit or stand.
As I mentioned earlier, sometimes your choice easy blackjack betting strategy be obvious.
The tricky cards are the ones that add up to between 12 and 16.
The dealer works with one player at a time, starting with the first player on his or her left.
The dealer stays with that player until he or she stands or busts goes over 21.
When that first player is finished with his or her turn, the dealer moves on to the next player and continues around the table until each person has played his or her hand.
If you decide to take the hit, the dealer will toss down a card face-up in front of you.
You can either indicate that you want another hit or that you want to stand.
If your hand is blackjack, turn your cards face-up to show the dealer what you have.
If you're playing for chips, you will immediately receive a payout at this point and the game continues with the other players.
If the dealer also has a blackjack, the play is called a push.
You keep your original bet, but you don't win anything more.
The Dealer's Hand After the deal, the dealer will have one face-up and one face-down card in front of him or her.
If the face-up card has a value of 10, the dealer will look at the face-down card to check for a blackjack.
If he or she has blackjack, he or she will turn over the cards and take your venetian blackjack and your hand away.
If you have blackjack, the dealer will take your cards, but you keep your bet.
If you are not playing for money, you and the dealer are considered tied if you both have blackjack.
If the dealer does not have blackjack, he or she will continue the play around the table.
The ace is, of course, the card that determines a blackjack.
If the dealer's face-down card is a 10-value card and there are 16 of these cards he or she has blackjack.
If you decide to take insurance, you can bet up to half of your original bet by placing your chips below your original bet.
If the dealer has a 10-value card, then he will pay off the insurance bets at two to one, but you lose your original bet.
If the dealer does not have blackjack, the players lose their insurance bets and play continues with the original bets.
This is why you're no better off taking insurance.
Three Strikes Casinos will use the insurance rules, but don't be fooled�it's just a sneaky way for casinos to try and make some extra cash.
The odds are against you in taking insurance, so beware.
You haven't made a penny.
Why is insurance even an option then?
You neither gain nor lose from it�only the casino turns a profit from insurance.
Splitting and Doubling-Down When you split your hand in blackjack, what you do is turn your two cards face-up side-by-side, and if you're betting, place another bet of identical value to your original bet.
You are now playing two hands.
The dealer will deal to the hand on your right first�until you stand or bust�and then the dealer will play to your other hand.
The abilities to split or double-down are the strategies that make the game interesting.
If you are dealt two cards of the same value�let's say two 8s�you can split the hand.
If you are dealt another check this out, you can re-split https://artwinajans.com/blackjack/yahoo-blackjack-games.html play three hands by moving that 8 alongside the other two cards, or just place another bet on the table, equal to your two previous bets.
Casino rules will vary, but some have strict rules about re-splitting.
If you are unsure of the rules, just ask the dealer.
Also, some casinos will not allow you to touch your cards, so in this case, just place another bet over your cards and the dealer will know that you are splitting.
At home, make sure you establish the rules before you start the game.
It might be fun to adopt some of the strict casino rules just to liven things up a little.
Experts advise that you should always split aces, and it is highly recommended to split 8s.
Doubling-down refers to doubling your bet, so if you're playing for money or chips at home, you can certainly employ this strategy.
It is a strategy that is definitely used in the casinos�so you should know about it if you're heading to a blackjack table near you.
The best time to double-down is when the two cards in your hand total 11.
That means you are banking that the next card you are dealt will be a 10-value card.
It's a real gamble, but the odds are pretty good that you will get a 10-value card because there are so many of them in a deck.
Doubling-down means that you can double the size of your original bet.
You do this by turning your cards face up and placing another bet on the table that is equal to your original bet.
When you double-down, you are dealt one more card�meaning you do not have the option to stand on your original hand or take any more hits after you are dealt easy blackjack betting strategy one extra card.
Basic Strategy Blackjack is not just a game of chance.
While a lot depends on the luck of the draw, there are many strategies to better your odds of winning.
click only exception to this rule is when you have a soft 17�meaning the hand contains an ace.
And even here, be careful of the dealer hand�check out his or her cards before asking for a hit.
The odds will be against you.
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Creating a flawless winning strategy in a Casino (BlackJack) using Data Science?
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Can we create a flawless winning strategy in a Casino using Data Science?
Otherwise, all the data scientists out there would be sitting on piles of cash and the casinos would shut us out!
But, in this article we will learn how to evaluate if a game in Casino is biased or fair.
We will understand the biases working in a casino and create strategies to become profitable.
We will also learn how can we control the probability of going bankrupt in Casinos.
To make the article interactive, I have added few puzzles in the end to use these strategies.
If you can crack them there is no strategy that can make you hedge against loosing in a Casino.
If your answer for second question is more than half of question one, then you fall in same basket as most of the players going to a Casino and you make them profitable!
Hence, the expected losses of a trade in Casino is almost equal to zero.
Why do our chances of gaining 100% or more are less than 50% but our chances of losing 100% is a lot more than 50%.
My recent experience with BlackJack Last week, I went to Atlantic City � the casino hub of US east coast.
BlackJack has always been my favorite game because of a lot of misconceptions.
For the starters, let me take you through how BlackJack is played.
There are few important things to note about BlackJack.
Player tries to maximize his score without being burst.
There are a few more complicated concepts like insurance and split, which is beyond the scope of this article.
So, we will keep things simple.
I was excited about all the winning I was about to get!!
I will try not to talk a lot in that language.
So if you are scared of probabilities you are fine.
No knowledge of R is required to understand the output.
What to expect in this article?
Here are the questions, I will try to answer in this article.
Is it more than 50% as I thought, or was I terribly wrong?
I can certainly use that when I go to Casino the next time.
What would you do?
By now, you will know that your cards are really poor but do you take another card and expose yourself to the risk of getting burst OR you will take the chance to stay and let the dealer get burst.
Simulation 1 Let us try to calculate the probability of the dealer getting burst.
This function will take input as the initial hand and draw a new card.
There are 6 possible outcomes for the dealers - getting a hard 17, 18,19, 20, 21 or getting burst.
Here is the probability distribution given for the first card of the dealer.
The probability of the dealer getting burst is 39.
This means you will loose 60% of times � Is that a good strategy?
With this additional information, we can make refinement to the probability of winning given our 2 cards and dealers safe blackjack betting strategy card.
Define the set for player's first 2+ sure card sum.
It can be between 12-21.
If the sum was less than 12, player will continuously take more cards till he is in this range.
And if the dealer does not have the same, the Player is definite to win.
The probability of winning for the player sum 12-16 should ideally be equal to the probability of dealer going burst.
Dealer will have to open a new card if it has a sum between 12-16.
This is actually the case which validates that our two simulations are consistent.
To decide whether it is worth opening another card, calls into question what will be the probability to win if player decides to take another card.
Insight 2 � If your sum is more than 17 and dealer gets a card 2-6, article source of winning is in your favor.
This is even without including Ties.
Simulation 3 In this simulation the only change from simulation 2 is that, player will pick one additional card.
Favorable probability table if you choose to draw a card is as follows.
So what did you learn from here.
Is it beneficial to draw a card at 8 + 6 or stay?
Favorable probability without drawing a card at 8 + 6 and dealer has 4 ~ 40% Favorable probability with drawing a card at 8 + 6 and dealer has 4 ~ 43.
Here is the difference of %Favorable events for each of the combination that can help you design a strategy.
Cells highlighted in green are where you need to pick a new card.
Cells highlighted in pink are all stays.
Cells not highlighted are where player can make a random choice, difference in probabilities is indifferent.
Our win rate is blackjack recruitment agency lower than the loss rate of the game.
It would have been much better if we just tossed a coin.
The biggest difference is that the dealer wins if both the player and the dealer gets burst.
Insight 3 � Even with the best strategy, a player wins 41% times as against dealer who wins 49% times.
The difference is driven by the tie breaker when both player and dealer goes burst.
This is consistent with our burst table, which shows that probability of the dealer getting burst is 28.
Hence, both the player and the dealer getting burst will be 28.
Deep dive into betting strategy Now we know what is the right gaming strategy, however, even the best gaming strategy can lead you to about 41% wins and 9% ties, easy blackjack betting strategy you to a big proportion of losses.
Is there a betting strategy that can come to rescue us from this puzzle?
The probability of winning in blackjack is known now.
We know that the strategy that works in a coin toss event will also work in black jack.
However, coin toss event is significantly less computationally intensive.
What got me to thinking was that even though the average value of anyone leaving the casino is same as what one dealer live online blackjack with, the percentage times someone becomes bankrupt is much higher than 50%.
Also, if you increase the number of games, the percentage times someone becomes bankrupt increases.
On your lucky days, you can win as much as you can possibly win, and Casino will never stop you saying that Casino is now bankrupt.
So in this biased game between you and Casino, for a non-rigged game, both you and Casino has the expected value of no gain no loss.
But you have a lower bound and Casino has no lower bound.
So, to pull the expected value down, a high number of people like you have to become bankrupt.
Let us validate this theory through a simuation using the previously defined functions.
Clearly the bankruptcy rate and maximum earning seem correlation.
What it means is that the more games you play, your probability of becoming bankrupt and becoming a millionaire both increases simultaneously.
So, if it is not your super duper lucky day, you will end up loosing everything.
Imagine 10 people P1, P2, P3, P4 �.
P10 is most lucky, P9 is second in line�.
P1 is the most unlucky.
Next in line of bankruptcy is P2 and so on.
In no time, P1 and P2 would rob P3.
Casino is just a medium to redistribute wealth if the games are fair and not rigged, which we have already concluded is not the case.
Insight 4 � The more games you play, the chances of your bankruptcy and maximum amount you can win, both increases for a fair game which itself is a myth.
Is there a way to control for this bankruptcy in a non-bias game?
What if we make the game fair.
Now this looks fair!
Let us run the same simulation we ran with the earlier strategy.
Again mathematician style � Hence Proved!
The Bankruptcy rate clearly fluctuates around 50%.
You can decrease it even further if you cap your earning at a lower % than 100%.
But sadly, no one can cap their winning when they are in Easy blackjack betting strategy />And not stopping at 100% makes them more likely to become bankrupt later.
Insight 5 � The only click here to win in a Casino is to decide the limit of winning.
On your lucky day, you will actually win that limit.
If you do otherwise, you will be bankrupt even in your most lucky day.
Exercise 1 Level : Low � If you set your higher limit of earning as 50% instead of 100%, at what % will your bankruptcy rate reach a stagnation?
Exercise 2 Level : High � Martingale is a famous betting strategy.
The rule is simple, whenever you loose, you make the bet twice of the last bet.
Once you win, you come back to the original minimum bet.
You win 3 games and then you loose 3 games and finally you win 1 game.
For such a betting strategy, find: a.
If the expected value of winning changes?
Does probability of winning changes at the end of a series of game?
Is this strategy any better than our constant value strategy without any upper bound?
Talk about bankruptcy rate, expect value at the end of series, probability to win more games, highest earning potential.
High number of matches can be as high as 500, low number of matches can be as low as 10.
Exercise 3 Level � Medium � For the Martingale strategy, does it make sense to put a easy blackjack betting strategy on earning at 100% to decrease the chances of bankruptcy?
Is this strategy any better than our constant value strategy with 100% upper bound with constant betting?
Talk about bankruptcy rate, expect value at the end of series, probability to win more games, highest earning potential.
End Notes Casinos are the best place to apply concepts of mathematics and the worst place to test these concepts.
As most of the games are rigged, you will only have fair chances to win while playing against other players, in games like Poker.
If there was one thing you want to take away from this article before entering a Casino, that will be always fix the upper bound to %earning.
You might think that this is against your winning streak, however, this is the only way to play a level game with Casino.
I hope you enjoyed reading this articl.
If you use these strategies next time you visit a Casino I bet you will find them extremely helpful.
If you have any doubts feel free to post them below.
Now, I am sure you are excited enough to solve the three examples referred in this article.
Make sure you share your answers with us in the comment section.
You can also read this article on Analytics Vidhya's Android APP Tavish Srivastava, co-founder and Easy blackjack betting strategy Strategy Officer of Analytics Vidhya, is an IIT Madras graduate and a passionate data-science professional with 8+ years of diverse experience in markets including the US, India and Singapore, domains including Digital Acquisitions, Customer Servicing and Customer Management, and industry including Retail Banking, Credit Cards and Insurance.
He is fascinated by the idea of artificial intelligence inspired by human intelligence and enjoys every discussion, theory or even movie related to this idea.
This article is quite old and you might not get a prompt response from the author.
We request you to post this comment on Analytics Vidhya's to get your queries resolved Uumm.
The odds in a casino are not in line with the odds of winning.
Or we could just go random as well in the game and yet come out even every time.

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Creating a flawless winning strategy in a Casino (BlackJack) using Data Science?
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